Wind power industry trapped in excess equipment dispute Development and Reform Commission expert prudent investment

On the eve of the issuance of the “Development Plan for Emerging Energy Industries”, the wind power industry, one of the three major new energy sources, has relapsed into a “surplus” dispute. The growth rate has slowed down significantly this year, and this year China's wind power capacity has only increased by 25% over the same period of last year. The company relies on the expansion of production to refute the excesses. After the completion of the existing scale of more than 70 wind power enterprises in China in 2010, the complete release of production capacity will enable wind power equipment production capacity to reach an annual output of 35 million kilowatts, but the average market in the next five years in the Chinese market. The new wind power installed capacity is at most 10 million kilowatts. Therefore, experts have concluded that the wind power industry is already in surplus and should be "prudently investing."

“We do not agree with the prudent approach, we can only continue to improve development, strengthen equipment manufacturing, planning layout. Optimistic and prudent or yes.” Zhao Yongqiang, expert from the National Development and Reform Commission's Renewable Energy Development Center, believes that only low-end equipment can have excess capacity. Wind power itself is not left.

Excessive wind power said

At the end of last year, at the beginning of this year, comments on polysilicon surplus filled the media. However, reporters learned from companies that polysilicon companies have too many orders to complete, and that the overcapacity does not hold water. With the excess production capacity of polysilicon being said to be falsified by the market, the focus of debate turned to wind power.

In fact, as early as the beginning of 2009, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, issued an appeal to the industry to “beware of overheated investment in wind power equipment manufacturing.” In late September of the same year, the State Council approved the National Development and Reform Commission, etc. The “Notice on Suppressing Some Opinions on Overcapacity in Some Industries and Duplicate Construction and Guiding the Healthy Development of Industries” reported by the ten departments pointed out more clearly: We must strictly control the blind expansion of production capacity of wind power equipment.

Since May-June this year, the view that the surplus of wind power has reached a climax, major brokerages have issued reports of excess wind power, and many manufacturers have also regarded the price war as the main reason for excess capacity.

Regarding the theory of excess wind power, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the surplus is real, but the problem is how we look at the surplus. "Excess is an inevitable phenomenon in the market economy. This phenomenon does not depend on government regulation to solve it, but only depends on the market to overcome it."

Li Junfeng stated that polysilicon and wind power equipment have excess capacity, but in 2010, the supply of polysilicon is still in short supply, and the import volume is estimated to exceed 20,000 tons. The wind power market needs to increase from 6.3 million kilowatts in 2008 to 14 million kilowatts in 2009, and the output has doubled. . Imagine controlling according to documents. In 2009, polysilicon and wind power equipment all stopped expanding. In 2010, it will inevitably create a bigger gap. ”

It is difficult to resolve wind power into the grid

As a highly sought-after new energy source, why is the manufacturing of wind power equipment plunged into a situation of "surplus" and "controlled"? The original wind power was called “new energy” and it had a dazzling aura. However, in the industry, wind power is saddened by “junk power”, which means that due to natural conditions, its power is usually very unstable. If the wind power is excessive, it will be on the grid. Cause a lot of pressure. Because of this, many wind farm generators have been repaired, but the power grid has not been built up. This is because the investment in wind farms into the power grid is huge (100 km requires a capital of 350 million yuan). On the other hand, the power is not Stable and easy to damage the power grid.

At present, wind power mainly relies on state subsidies to operate, and there are not many real commercial profits. According to the data disclosed by the China Electric Power Association, at least 28% of China's 12.21 million kilowatts of wind power installed capacity was not connected to the grid for power generation. The issue raised by Shi Pengfei, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society's professional committee, is indeed the most difficult issue facing the wind power industry. In recent years, the growth rate of wind power installed capacity is very fast, and many wind power plants are located in Xinjiang, Gansu and other power grids. Due to the inability to timely connect to the grid and other issues, it causes great waste.

Zhao Yongqiang, an expert from the National Development and Reform Commission's Renewable Energy Development Center, said in a telephone interview with a reporter from Southern Capital, “The problem of wind power access to the network is not unsolvable. In fact, new energy technologies use natural resources, and there is uncertainty in itself. The system must first adapt to this natural characteristic and improve predictability.” Zhao Yongqiang believes that there are two points in the network access issue. First, the transmission capacity of wind power is insufficient compared to power generation. For this, we will plan and improve power transmission. schedule. The second is the lack of power supply structure and distribution, and the small space for flexible scheduling. We will expand the scope of scheduling and improve scheduling techniques.

Cai Liang, an analyst at Huatai United Securities Wind Power Industry, said in an interview with Nandu reporters that the problem of wind power grid access is being speeded up. “The claim that wind power is garbage power is an extreme argument. In fact, the percentage of network access has risen faster than the percentage of installed power. Wind power access is increasing. Accelerate the solution, the state introduced a variety of programs, there is no major problem. The network has been much better."

Offshore wind power will hardly become mainstream in the next decade

The launch of offshore wind projects will bring another round of investment boom for the wind power equipment industry. The wind speed at sea is higher than that of land, and the general wind direction is fixed. Therefore, the unit is stable in operation and has a long service life. The unit has a large single capacity and a higher annual utilization hour. Therefore, the energy output is relatively large. Including gold wind and other upstream equipment vendors overweight offshore wind power equipment, many energy companies have begun offshore wind enclosures. The tendering results of China's first offshore wind farm will be announced in November. The winners of the construction boom of offshore wind farms will emerge. Possible winners include local first-tier companies such as Sinovel and Goldwind, as well as foreign companies such as Vestas, Siemens and others.

“Offshore wind power is of course a trend. Now that the good wind energy on land has been developed, it is difficult for the sea. It will not be possible to see an explosive development in one or two years.” Cai Liang, an analyst at Huatai United Securities Wind Power Co., Ltd. thinks that sea is better than land. It takes twice as time to build a power station and it is difficult to suddenly become a trend. Zhao Yongqiang, the National Development and Reform Commission's Renewable Energy Development Center, pointed out directly: “Offshore wind power can only be one of the trends of future wind power and will not be major in the next ten years in China.”